Former National Security Council head Yaakov Nagel at the Cybertech Israel Conference and Exhibition in Tel Aviv, on January 26, 2016. Photo by Miriam Alster/FLASH90.
An Israeli government commission issued a strong warning about the potential for conflict with Turkey in its latest report.
The “Committee for the Evaluation of the Defense Establishment Budget and the Balance of Power” is led by former National Security Council head Yaakov Nagel, and is often referred to in Hebrew media as the Nagel Commission or Nagel Committee.
The Nagel Commission was established in 2023, before the outbreak of the war, to create recommendations for the Ministry of Defense regarding the possible areas of conflict facing Israel in the years ahead.
While the report focused primarily on Iran as the largest threat facing Israel in the coming years, it also issued a sober warning about the possibility of conflict with Turkey, particularly following the overthrow of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the rise of Turkish-affiliated rebel groups to lead the new government.
The report briefly addressed Turkey’s complex status in the region and its changing relations with Israel over the past few years.
Turkey is a major regional player with a significant military presence outside its own borders. This is most clearly seen in Syria and Libya, where its actions have affected the situation on the ground.
The commission urged Israel to take into account the strategic challenges posed by Turkey, noting the changing balance of power following Israel’s war with the terror groups Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, as well as Ankara’s ability to leverage its diplomatic and military ties to influence other countries in the region.
Specifically, the Nagel Commission recommended that Israel prepare broadly for possible scenarios of military confrontation in the northern region (Syria), where Turkey has made a significant investment of funds and forces.
“The problem will intensify if the Syrian power becomes, in a practical way, a Turkish emissary, as part of the realization of the Turkish dream of returning the Ottoman crown to its former glory,” the report stated.
“The presence of Turkish emissaries, or Turkish forces in Syria, is liable to deepen the direct danger of Turkish-Israeli hostilities.”
The commission warned: “The development of strong connections [by the new Syrian government] with Turkey will shorten the process of creating a new Syrian-Turkish threat.”
The report also warned of the dangers that an extremist Sunni jihadist force on the borders of Jordan presents, as it could arouse and encourage the rise of militant groups in the kingdom, which has often struggled to contain Palestinian unrest.
Turkey is also a competitor in the global arms export market. The country’s more developed industry has allowed it to offer advanced military solutions, often at low prices with fast supply, which places it in direct competition with Israel’s defense firms.
The Nagel Commission recommended that Israel ensure a qualitative and technological advantage while maintaining its operational superiority in the defense market. The report also highlighted the potential for diplomatic pressure from Turkey on countries considering Israeli defense purchases, which could further impact Israel’s strategic position.
Despite the previously good relations between Israel and the U.S. under former President Donald Trump, the report recommended that Israel pursue a strategy of being able to defend itself without any foreign assistance. Thus, it recommended that Israel begin to build up the necessary forces and arms to be able to attack Iran and weather a war with Turkey on its own.
Upon receiving the report, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “We have known for years that Iran is the greatest threat to us, both directly and through its proxies. Of course, we took care to strike this axis very hard. But we have been witness to the fact that a) it still exists and b) additional forces have entered the field, and we always need to be prepared for what may come.”
