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US Dollar secures gains after PCE figures, eyes on NFPs next week

daystarnews by daystarnews
September 1, 2024
in Business
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US Dollar secures gains after PCE figures, eyes on NFPs next week
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  • US inflation, as measured by the PCE Price Index, remained unchanged at 2.5% YoY in July.
  • The USD is gaining due to the strength of its economy while inflation is coming down.
  • The labor market is still the focus for September’s decision.

On Friday, the US Dollar, measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), extended gains after the release of July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, which showed inflation continuing to be kept at bay.

With inflation coming down and economic activity steady, the outlook justifies rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), whose chairman has already stated that there will be a cut in September. However, the PCE print may not have been dovish enough to persuade the central bank to start with a 50-basis-point cut.

Daily digest market movers: DXY gains ground after PCE figures

  • Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, remained unchanged at 2.5% on a yearly basis in July, below the market expectation of 2.6%.
  • Core PCE Price Index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also matched June’s increase at 2.6%, below the market forecast of 2.7%.
  • The data suggests that inflation is coming down, but the pace of the cutting cycle will be dictated by the incoming labor market data.
  • CME FedWatch tool now shows a near 30% probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September, which has slightly declined.

Technical outlook: Bullish momentum increases, target now at 102.00

Technical analysis indicates a potential recovery for the DXY index. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending upward, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is printing lower red bars. If the DXY remains above the 101.00 level, it could trigger a rally toward the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 102.00. That being said, the overall outlook is negative, but a recovery of the mentioned SMA might flip the table.

Key support levels are at 100.50, 100.30 and 100.00, while resistance levels are at 101.70, 101.80 and 102.00.

Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.

Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.

Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.

Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

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